Economic Perspective |January 2024 Chartbook
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, amid strong consumer spending, with growth for the full year coming in at 2.5%. The Commerce Department's advance fourth-quarter…
January 2024 Market Outlook
The year began by digesting short-term overbought conditions in both equities and Treasuries after a sharp rally in those markets that ran for 2½ months. We believe any corrections provide…
Economic Perspective | December 2023 Chartbook
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) projects U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2024, with the unemployment rate seen rising to 4.4% from what it estimates will be…
Economic Perspective | November 2023 Chartbook
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 as businesses built more warehouses and accumulated equipment. However, momentum appears to have since waned as higher borrowing…
2024 Market Outlook
We believe 2024 will be the year that the Bull returns to the bond market, and that the Bull keeps charging ahead for equities with the S&P 500 reaching new…
Economic Perspective | October 2023 Chartbook
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter as higher wages helped fuel consumer spending and businesses restocked at a brisk clip to meet…
October 2023 Market Outlook
As we move into November and December, the strongest seasonal period for the equity market is upon us. October is known for its higher-than-average volatility, but more importantly, it is…
Economic Perspective | September 2023 Chartbook
The U.S. economy maintained a solid pace of growth in the second quarter and activity appears to have accelerated this quarter, but an ongoing strike by auto workers is dimming…
September 2023 Market Outlook
There is always the unexpected! Of all things, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and Beyoncé’s Renaissance Tour have added significantly to consumer spending over the past several months, resulting in stronger…
Economic Perspective | August 2023 Chartbook
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly less brisk pace than initially thought in the second quarter as businesses liquidated inventory, but momentum appears to have picked up early this…
August 2023 Market Outlook
Equity markets have entered a seasonal correction that typically lasts into the fall months with important market bottoms often reached in the month of October. Earnings estimate revisions, which are…
Economic Perspective | July 2023 Chartbook
According to the Commerce Department, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% during Q2, well above the consensus estimate of 1.8%. Increases in consumer spending and…
Market Insights- Week Ahead: August 7, 2023
Last Friday, we received July employment data which does not show a slowdown in the economy. Although non-farm payrolls and private payrolls came in slightly below expectations, wages came in…
Market Insights-Fitch Downgrades U.S. Long-Term Rating to AA+ from AAA – What does this Mean for Investors?
The last time U.S. debt was downgraded the S&P 500 fell by 15% but recovered within months. We have been highlighting that equity markets are overbought and could pullback 5%-10%.…
July 2023 Market Outlook
The first half of 2023 had spectacular returns that were not expected as we came into the year. The consensus view was that the first half of the year would…